Libya - What Next

So. Libya's Rebel Movement has finally captured the capital of Tripoli. The National Transitional Council is moving in and Gaddafi is on the run. I think the first thing we need to do is look at how what many people are calling Libya's Civil War came about.

The first thing that must be understood is that while the events in Libya were born out of the same types of protests that toppled Ben Ali in Tunisia and Mubarak in Egypt, things in Libya turned out differently due to the character of Colonel Mummar Gaddafi. For starters Gaddafi held power for over forty years, longer than either Ben-Ali or Mubarak. Thus he had longer to cement his position and more to lose if he was toppled by protesters.

Thus when the protests began - peacefully as all the others were - Gaddafi had no trouble sending in the Military, who of course support him. As in Zimbabwe us Mugabi the Military in Libya has a very comfortable existence under Gaddafi and do not wish to see him gone. These intial protests took place in the eastern city of Bengazi, located on the other side of the country from Triopli and far removed from Gaddafi's stranglehold.  When protests turned violent the citizens of Bengazi quickly overwhelmed the authorites and declared their oppistion to the Gaddafi regime.  Other towns followed and soon what had been minor protests blossomed into a full blown revolution.

At first it was a distnticly amature rebellion, made up of civilians and occasional army defectors armed with weapons pillaged from military bases. Though they were able to capture several towns, they were no real threat. Hence the decision of the UN to insitiute a No Fly Zone around Libya to reduce Gaddafi's ability to bomb either the rebels or civilians who he had already targeted. A new government formed, the National Transitional Council which claimed to represent the views of the Rebellion.

So now after a long and arduous six months, the Rebels have control of Tripoli and have even over run Gaddafi's bunker. While there are still some pockets of fighting and they have to take control of all of Tripoli, the message is clear. The Gaddafi regime has fallen.

But now as the people of Libya look to the future two important questions spring to the fore.

1: How do you solve a problem like Colonel Gaddafi?

Gaddafi it appears got out of Tripoli when the rebels arrived. I'm not suprised frankly. If you've been a brutal dictator for forty years, the first thing you do is plan an escape route when the inevitable revolution comes. Most people believe he is now holed up in his home town of Sirte, surrounded by those still loyal to him. Today it has emerged that he has offered to engage in talks about an orderly transtion of power. Though some how I can't imagine that Gaddafi will just hand over power without a fight, so he must be searching for an angle.

The general expectation was that he would fight to the death - he said as much on the radio - but now a possiblity of surrender seems likely. In which case what happens once he is caught. The International Criminal Court would like to try him I suspect for various types of War Crimes, but I suspect what will actually happen is that he will be tried and either imprisoned or executed in Libya. It would act as closure for the Libyan people.

2: What Happens Next.

So far the National Transtional Council has not had to think about how to run the country. It has mostly been preocupied with running the civil war and the towns that is has taken over have had infrastructures already in place. But now that they have Tripoli, they have to restore water and power and create jobs and an infrastructure from the ground up. It has asked the UN to release millions of dollars worth of Gaddafi regime money that was frozen when fighting began but even that will take time to filter through.

What ever happens one thing is clear. Things in Libya are going to change. But whether for the worse or the better we will only know in time.