Here's the Cart. Where's the Horse?

This week I’m going to take a break from the Americas and look at something a little closer to home.

Independence for Scotland has always been a central aim of the Scottish National Party – hence the name – and no one has been a stronger crusader for this than current SNP leader Alex Salmond. Now the waving of the saltire has been taken to the extreme with Salmond – the Scottish First Minister – setting out a time table for a referendum on Scottish independence. Despite attempted meddling from Westminster with David Cameron trying to limit Salmond options, a date has now been set, the autumn of 2014.

The question the coming referendum raises is ‘how feasible is Scottish independence?’ For all the SNP’s rhetoric about a “Better Scotland,” a “Wealthier Scotland” and a “Fairer Scotland,” Scotland has been run from London for over 300 years, ever since Elizabeth the First died without an heir, putting her Scots cousin James on the throne of England . Despite the powers devolved to Holyrood and the Scottish Parliament, Westminster still controls a lot what goes on north of the border.

If, theoretically, Scotland gained independence tomorrow, it would suddenly have to oversee border control and a police force, construct a credible military – most likely regiments pillaged from the British Army – and create new political and trade relationships with countries that it previously related to as part of the United Kingdom. This is, of course, on top of constructing a stable, manageable economy.

Figures from the Government Expenditure in Scotland report show that public spending in Scotland from 2004 – 5 was £47.7bn while revenue was £36.4bn. That leaves a deficit of £11bn. While Scotland does have the devolved powers to raise its own taxes it also receives a large amount of money from Westminster. If you removed that subsidy then the Scots would have to come up with a new source of revenue quite quickly or watch themselves collapse into an Ireland like period of economic downturn.

Now I’m sure that Alex Salmond, who is, as Nick Robinson says, possible the canniest political operator in the UK at the moment, has thought these problems through. He may even have ideas how they could be overcome. However, as of yet, I have seen no evidence of this. At the moment it looks like Mr Salmond is putting the cart a long way in front of the horse. About twenty miles in front I would say.

I’m all for the Scots voting on their independence. They have the right. I’d just like to see some evidence that they are ready for it first.